Tracking public opinion and conspiracy theories around the 2024 and 2025 assassination attempts on Donald Trump.
When given the options of 'true,' 'false' or 'not sure,' and asked whether each of the incidents 'was staged,' a majority of respondents said they thought each event was either staged or were unsure.
Respondents were asked about the July 2024 shooting at a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Nearly half said the event was staged or they were not sure.
A second alleged attempt in West Palm Beach, Florida, saw similar skepticism. A majority of respondents either believed it was staged or were unsure.
Republican respondents were more likely than Democrats to say the attempts were staged or express uncertainty. The gap was widest for the Butler rally.
Independent voters were nearly evenly divided between believing the events were real, staged, or being unsure. No clear majority emerged.
Respondents under 30 were significantly more likely to say the attempts were staged or express uncertainty compared to older age groups.
An analyst noted that platforms like X and Truth Social have been hotbeds for theories that the attempts were 'false flags.' The poll reflects this online discourse.
A representative from a polling firm said the results fit a broader pattern of declining institutional trust. Similar skepticism has been observed around other major events.
Despite official statements from the FBI and Secret Service confirming the attempts, a significant portion of the public remains unconvinced.
Some respondents cited media narratives as a reason for their skepticism. An official said the poll highlights a crisis of information credibility.
The poll was conducted May 3-5, 2026, using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.
A spokesperson suggested that the poll results could lead to hearings on disinformation and public trust in law enforcement.